Anderson v Hamilton: No value in inconsistent Scot
Contrasting opening night fortunes. Contrasting opening night averages. Contrasting levels of consistency. So, of course one man is the heavy odds-on favourite for victory this week. But is it the right man?
There was an astonishing 18 points between Andy Hamilton and Gary Anderson’s three-dart average in Manchester last Thursday. But the advantage wasn’t in favour of the defending Premier League champion, instead it was the debutant who kicked off with an impressive victory and now tops the embryonic table.
Yet it is the Scotsman who is made the 8/13 favourite for victory by most bookmakers: Hamilton available at odds of 11/4 and the draw at 9/2.
Of course, however, we must factor in the venue. In Aberdeen Hamilton must contend with not only his opponent but also a partisan crowd. Last year in the Granite City Anderson was in mesmerising form as he hit seven 180s on his way to a 101 three-dart average and an 8-3 win over Terry Jenkins.
Knowing what Anderson is capable of when he gets going, I wouldn’t take him on here. But, knowing how poor he can be when things aren’t going right, as was evidenced last week, I couldn’t back him at odds-on prices either. The Match Odds market is one to be avoided in this match.
One area where there is value is the Highest Checkout Score market. It goes without saying that Anderson struggles on his doubles, and his biggest checkout last week was a measly 56. Even when he is on song, his power scoring means that he rarely leaves big numbers to checkout.
Hamilton’s biggest checkout last week was also a relatively low 93. The Hammer can hit the big finishes, but they are rare. In his 11-set epic semi-final win over Simon Whitlock at the Worlds earlier this year, he only managed one finish bigger than 120, and then produced the same statistic in the final.
Ladbrokes offer a generous Evens that the highest checkout of this match is Under 120.5. And that looks to be the best bet of this match.
• Hamilton v Van Barneveld: Barney's bubble to burst
• Anderson v Lewis: Odds make Jackpot the value
• Whitlock v Taylor: Power to fill the lipstick
• Wade v Painter: Bookies continue to disregard Artist
• Imperious Taylor goes odds-on
• Taylor v Van Barneveld: Another Barney renaissance
• Anderson v Wade: Unfortunate Wade to get off the mark
• Painter v Whitlock: Artist to battle all the way
• Lewis v Hamilton: Champ to notch first victory
• Nine-dart Taylor lights up Aberdeen
• Taylor v Painter: Power has measure of Artist
• Lewis v Van Barneveld: Dutch delight in second home
• Whitlock v Wade: In-form Wizard has the edge
• Anderson v Painter: Light the red touchpaper
• Lewis v Taylor: Repeat performance for Jackpot
• Barney considered quitting
• Hamilton v Wade: Hammer time in Manchester
• Whitlock v Van Barneveld: Wizard has edge
• Hammer made wooden spoon favourite