Big finishes & big averages to come
Bookies are getting more imaginative every year when it comes to world championship markets and there are plenty to have a crack at with this year’s showpiece event now right around the corner.
There are dozens of markets during matches to have a flutter on but we’re going to have a look at the various outright markets for the competition as a whole from maximums to nationalities and high checkouts to big averages, these can be tricky to call, but there is plenty of profit to be made with some educated guesses.
First up the number of 180s over the whole tournament is a market that a number of bookies are offering, although the odds are not often the best when it comes to this. Every bookmaker offering a price on over and under for this have either way priced at 5/6 although not every bookie has the number to aim at the same. Whilst some places have it as high as 580.5, others have it at 576.5 and with a massive 582 being hit last year, the latter target seems very achievable. There is bound to be an awful lot of high quality and close matches, and beating last year’s total looks a distinct possibility so with William Hill offering over 576.5 at 5/6 I would happily pile in on that.
There is also a market on individual 180s provided by Bet Victor and this again could easily surpass the level of last year. Adrian Lewis has hit more maximums than anyone else in both of the previous two world championships on his way to winning both and although he only hit 50 last year he managed a huge 60 the year before. The high end of the market this year is 54 and over and if Michael van Gerwen can make a long run in the competition then he could easily top this at 8/5.
With ton-plus averages becoming more and more a regular occurrence there is bound to be a few at the Ally Pally and who will produce the highest single match average is another tasty looking market. There were four last year with Simon Whitlock’s 105.11 in round one being the biggest and it is Phil Taylor who is 2/1 favourite to claim the highest match average this time around. It was the Power who had the highest tournament average last year but he only played two matches so that was a little skewed in the world number one’s favour.
The form horse in terms of big averages though is van Gerwen who broke the world record in the Championship League beating Steve Beaton 6-0 and averaging 121.86 along the way. It is an absolute minimum of nine legs in round one of the world championships so it will be hard to keep this up, but anything within 15 points of this could well be enough for MVG so at 3/1 he looks a great price. An outsider for this market though could be Gary Anderson at 11/1, the Scotsman has banged in five ton-plus averages in the last two world championships, which is an incredible achievement, and if he finds form is a very tempting price.
A barometer of how the quality has improved over recent years is the odds of a nine-darter over the tournament. The perfect game is still odds-against but only just at 5/4 with it not happening at best priced 8/11. With the ability in the ranks of the PDC there are plenty of players who are capable of pulling off the feat and seen as it has now happened in three of the last four world championships, the 5/4 looks a decent price.
In fact there used to be odds of around evens on whether there would be a 170 checkout in a tournament, those odds are now down to 1/14 at absolute best and the price on certain players doing it themselves is evens. Those men who are lowest priced are Simon Whitlock and Michael van Gerwen and that is a fantastic price on both men who are prolific on that specific big finish and are in top form in general. Wes Newton is often a good call for the biggest of finishes as well, he hit one at the Ally Pally last year and is 2/1 to repeat the feat and could easily do it.
Finally, an interesting market provided by Paddy Power is the number of the top eight seeds to reach the quarter-finals with great odds on all nine outcomes from 0-9. Four is the favoured outcome with the bookmaker at 23/10 but five looks a more likely number for me with Taylor, Lewis, Hamilton, van Gerwen and Whitlock the big names in the last eight and if those or any combination of five make it to the last eight it is 12/5 with Paddy Power.
Written By:- Phil Haigh (About our
Posted on:- 13/12/2012 - 09:59 AM
Filed in:- PDC World Championship Betting News, Adrian Lewis, Gary Anderson, Phil Taylor, Raymond van Barneveld , Simon Whitlock
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